P I Lot per F or Mance Wi T H P R Edict I Ve System Stat Us I Nf Orm at I on I Ntro Duct I O N

A n na C. T r u jillo N A SA La ng le y Re se ar c h Ce n te r H a mp to n , VA 2 3 6 8 1-0 0 0 1 AB ST RACT R esearch has shown a strong pi l ot preference for predi ct i ve i nform ati on of a i rcraft sys tem stat us in the fl ight deck. However, t he benefi t s of predi ct ive inform at i on have not been quant i t at i vely demons t rat ed. The st udy des cri bed here at tem pt ed t o identi fy and quant i fy thes e benefi ts if they exis t ed. I n thi s si m ul at or experim ent , three types of predi ct ive i nform at i on (none, whet her a param et er was changi ng abnorm al ly, and the ti m e for a param et er to reach an al ert range) and four init i al t i m es to an al ert (1 mi nut e, 5 m i nut es , 15 mi nut es , and ETA+ 45 mi nut es) were found to affect when subj ect s accom pli s hed certai n act i ons , such as acces s i ng p ert i nent checkl i st s , decl ari ng em ergenci es, di vert i ng, and call i ng t he f l i ght at t endant and di s pat ch. M uch a necdot al evidence exi st s regarding the benefi t s predi ct ing aircraft syst em f ai l ures woul d bri ng to increasi ng t he safet y of fl i ght. Docum ent ed ins t ances exi s t where some t ype o f earl y not ifi cati on to the fl i ght crew of a sys t em param et er d evi at i on coul d have prevented or les sened the cons equences of a n ai rcraft 's syst em f ai l ure [1], [2]. The benefi t s of predi ct i ve i nform at i on, som e have argued, are i n …